Author ORCID Identifier

https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1992-0619

Date of Award

14-11-2024

Document Type

Thesis

School

School of Electrical & Electroncis Engineering

Programme

Ph.D.-Doctoral of Philosophy

First Advisor

Dr.N.Venkatanathan

Keywords

Earthquake Forecasting Studies, Machine Learning, Seismic And Non Seismic Parameters, Earthquake Precursors, Solid Earth Tides, Outgoing Longwave Radiation

Abstract

Earthquake forecasting is a challenging field due to Earth's heterogeneous nature. This research aims to develop a short-term earthquake forecasting model by analyzing spatiotemporal trends and precursory signatures in the Sumatra-Andaman region, known for its high seismic activity and tsunami risk. The study adopts an interdisciplinary approach, integrating solid earth tides (SET), micro shocks, and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) to gain deeper insights into seismic nucleation processes. The research begins by using Singular Spectral Analysis (SSA) to identify potential seismically vulnerable areas through the analysis of irregularities in SET.

A spatiotemporal analysis of micro shocks is conducted to assess the response of these regions to tidal stress. Agglomerative clustering algorithms group seismic events based on latitude, longitude, and depth over each lunar year, helping to identify broader zones where seismic stress may be accumulating. Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) is then employed to achieve precise spatial refinement by correlating the SET anomalous locations with the occurrence of micro shocks.

These refined zones are subsequently analyzed using OLR data, which is incorporated into a novel spatiotemporal classification algorithm designed to identify critical levels of vulnerability and possible magnitude of the earthquake. Daily analysis of the OLR dataset further refines the time of potential earthquake occurrences. The results indicate that seismic nucleation processes may occur 1-3 lunar months and the anomalous signatures appearing 1-92 days prior to the earthquake of magnitude >6.0.

This interdisciplinary approach, combining seismic and non-seismic parameters, offers improved understanding in seismic nucleation process and short-term earthquake forecasting studies.

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